Analyzing Indonesia’s Inflation in 1998-2020: Error Correction Model Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55324/ijoms.v2i1.268Keywords:
inflation, welfare, interest rateAbstract
Inflation is a macroeconomic problem that is of concern, unstable inflation has a negative impact on people's welfare, so inflation control is important. The purpose of this study is to estimate the factors that influence inflation in Indonesia for the period 1998-2020. The research method uses descriptive analysis by providing an overview of the development of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, household consumption, and GDP in Indonesia during 1998-2020. Quantitative analysis using Error Correction Model (ECM). This study uses secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI). The results obtained indicate that all variables (interest rates, exchange rates, household consumption and GDP) simultaneously have a significant effect on inflation, both in the long and short term. Based on the results of the partial test, the interest rate variable has a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia both in the long and short term. The exchange rate variable partially has a negative and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia, both in the long and short term. Furthermore, the GDP variable partially has a positive and significant effect on inflation in the long term but not significant in the short term. Meanwhile, the household consumption variable partially has no significant effect on inflation in Indonesia during the 1998-2020 period.
References
Andrianus, F., & Niko, A. (2006). Analisa faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi di Indonesia periode 1997: 3–2005: 2. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets.
Endri, E. (2008). Analysis of factors influencing inflation in Indonesia. Journal of Economic Development, 13(1).
Gunawan, A. H. (1991). Anggaran pemerintah dan inflasi di Indonesia. Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
Haryono, E., Nugroho, W. A., & Pratomo, W. (2003). Mekanisme pengendalian moneter dengan inflasi sebagai sasaran tunggal. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 2(4). https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v2i4.282
Indonesia’s National Development Planning Agency. (2021). Perkembangan ekonomi makro. Statistics Indonesia.
Juhro, S. M. (2021). Pengantar kebanksentralan: Teori dan kebijakan. PT. Raja Grafindo Persada.
Langi, T. M., Masinambow, V., & Siwu, H. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga BI, Jumlah Uang Beredar, dan Tingkat Kurs terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 14(2).
Listiani, N. (2006). Faktor-faktor determinan yang mempengaruhi tingkat inflasi di Indonesia periode 1970-2004. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 14(1), 42–73.
Listika, N., Asngari, I., & Suhel, S. (2019). Pengaruh inflasi dan capital inflow terhadap nilai tukar: Studi kasus Indonesia-Malaysia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 16(1). https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v16i1.8874
Loungani, P., & Swagel, P. (2000). Source inflation in developing countries.
Martanto, B., Tan, S., & Syurya Hidayat, M. (2021). Analisis tingkat inflasi di Indonesia Tahun 1998-2020 (pendekatan error correction model). Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika, 16(3). https://doi.org/10.22437/jpe.v16i3.14360
Nopirin. (1997). Kebijakan penanggulangan inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Indonesia, 12(1).
Novita, N., & Herianingrum, S. (2020). Pengaruh GDP, ekspor dan investasi terhadap inflasi di lima negara anggota IDB. Jurnal Ekonomi, 25(1). https://doi.org/10.24912/je.v25i1.628
Priyono, T. C. (2016). Esensi ekonomi makro. Zifatama Publisher.
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Shaila Farizqiyah, Indah Yuliana

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC-BY-SA). that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.