P-ISSN: 2808-5957
E-ISSN: 2808-6724
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PROJECT DELAY PREDICTION WITH EARNED VALUE METHOD:
A CASE ON THE CSS-APARTMENT PROJECT IN SURABAYA-INDONESIA
Arman Jayady
1
, Robin Supratman
2
Indonesian Persada University YAI, Indonesia
1, 2
email : ajayady@yahoo.co.id, robin.supratman@gmail.com
Abstract
The risk of delay is very likely to occur in a construction project. Especially in large-scale
infrastructure projects that are accompanied by high complexity. Careful planning and prediction both
related to aspects of design, implementation, including scheduling are very important. Problems that
often arise in large-scale and complex construction projects are early predictions related to delays in
the final completion of a project. This study aims to predict the occurrence of delays in project
completion. Based on secondary data obtained from construction contractors and by using appropriate
analytical procedures, the result is that the CSS-Apartment project is predicted to experience a delay of
57 weeks from the planned 146 weeks. The data is obtained directly from the project site. After all the
data has been obtained, the processing is carried out using the Earned Value Method. Literature study
is done by reading literature related to this writing Based on the case of an apartment project called
CSS-Apartment Project in Surabaya - Indonesia, and using the Earned Value method.
Keywords: earned value method, delay, construction project, indonesia
Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science © 2022 by International Journal Labs is licensed
under CC BY-SA 4.0
INTRODUCTION
Surabaya is one of the major cities in Indonesia that has a high level of population density. Like other
major cities in Indonesia, residential infrastructure development is now also being carried out to meet the
increasingly difficult housing needs due to limited land in this city. One of the infrastructures being built at
this time is the CSS-Apartment Project as a residence that has luxurious facilities, entertainment and
services with complete facilities like a five-star hotel. With time and cost constraints, good and mature
control is needed (Jayady, Subekti, Smyshlyaev, Protasova, & Artha, 2021).
The CSS-Apartment Project consists of 39 floors plus three basements with a construction plan
duration of 146 weeks with a project value of Rp. 207,000,000,000. With such a large project size, CSS-
Apartment Project must have interdependence between complex works, which has an impact on difficult
control. So the possibility of project delays is very likely. Based on these reasons, a method is needed in
analyzing performance and predicting delays in a construction project (Jayady, 2018).
One way to determine project performance is the Earned Value method. The Earned Value method
combines elements of schedule, cost and physical development work performance that has been carried out
in the field so that the cost and time to complete the project can be estimated. This method can detect as
early as possible if there are cost overruns or delays that may occur in the implementation of a project, so
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
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Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (8), Mei 2022
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that the relevant parties can immediately anticipate and take steps to overcome them so that the project is
completed on time with the remaining costs (Bulo, Balaka, & Sriyani, 2013).
Based on the case in the CSS-Apartment Project and by using the earned value method, this study
aims to predict the occurrence of late completion of the project. With this method, in addition to predicting
delays that can be identified early, it is also expected to know the cost requirements based on the remaining
time and the estimated time for project completion based on actual conditions in the field.
Definition of Earned Value Method
According to (Sufa’atin, 2017) explaining Earned Value Management (EVM) is one method that can
be used to control project costs and time during project execution. In addition, this method can integrate
time and cost so that it can find out the progress of a project faster or slower than the project schedule
should and to find out whether the budget is bigger or smaller than the budget. EVM adds steps that must
be included in the management process, namely the control process, and processes related to the purpose
of calculating, analyzing, forecasting, reporting costs and schedule performance for the evaluation and
action of project stakeholders. It is expected that by using the EVM method the cost and time of project
work can be controlled and the project can be completed on time and the costs incurred are in accordance
with the project budget
Flemming and Koppelman cited by (Maromi & Indryani, 2015) explain the concept of earned value
compared to traditional cost management. Traditional cost management only presents two dimensions,
namely a simple relationship between actual costs and planned costs. With traditional cost management,
the performance status cannot be known. In contrast, the earned value concept provides a third dimension
besides actual costs and planned costs. This third dimension is the amount of physical work that has been
completed or is called earned value / percent complete. With this third dimension, a project manager will
be able to better understand how much performance has resulted from a number of costs that have been
incurred.
Figure 1. Graph of Differences in Traditional Cost Management and the Concept of Earned Value
Source : https://manajemenproyekindonesia.com/?p=769
Earned Value Analysis (EVA) is a method that allows the project manager to measure the amount of
work actually performed on a project beyond the basic review of cost and schedule reports. EVA provides
a method that permits the project to be measured by progress achieved. The project manager is then able,
using the progress measured, to forecast a project’s total cost and date of completion, based on trend
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
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analysis or application of the project’s “burn rate”. This method relies on a key measure known as the
project’s earned value (Verzuh & Association, 2021).
Assessment Of Project Performance With The Concept Of Earned Value
The use of the concept of Earned Value in project performance appraisal is explained in Figure 2.
Several terms related to this assessment are Cost Variance, Schedule Variance, Cost Performance Index,
Schedule Performance Index, Estimate at Completion, dan Variance at Completion.
Figure 2. Earned Value S Curve Graph
Source : Semantic Scholar (2015)
Schedule Variance (SV)
Schedule variance is used to calculate the deviation between BCWS and BCWP. Positive value
indicates that more project work packages have been implemented than planned. Conversely, negative value
indicates poor work performance because fewer work packages have been carried out than the planned
schedule.
BCWS – BCWP = SV
Variance With S Graph
Another way to demonstrate the presence of variance is to use S graph and will depict the progress of
the volume of work completed throughout the project cycle. The S graph is very useful for use as monthly
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
Indonesia
Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (8), Mei 2022
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reports and reports to project leaders, because this graph can clearly show project progress in an easy-to-
understand form.
Figure 3. S Graph
Source : Monday (2022)
Cost Variance and Integrated Schedule
Cost Variance (CV) and Schedule Variance (SV) are formulated as follows :
Cost Variance (CV) = EV – AC atau CV = BCWP – ACWP
Schedule Variance (SV) = EV – PV atau SV = BCWP – BCWS
Prediction of Project Final Completion Costs / Estimate At Completion (EAC)
The importance of calculating CPI and SPI is to predict statistically the costs required to complete
the project. There are many methods of predicting project completion costs (EAC). However, the
calculation of EAC with SPI and CPI is easier and faster to use.
The EAC calculation is the sum of the actual costs that have been incurred and the remaining costs
that will be needed to complete the project. The remaining costs that will be required are predicted
statistically by taking into account the effectiveness of the use of costs (CPI) and work performance against
the plan (SPI). From the EAC value, it can be obtained an estimate of the difference between the cost of the
project completion plan (BAC) and the project completion cost based on the work performance that has
been achieved (EAC) or what is called the variance at completion (VAC)
Criteria Earned Valued Management System
Although the concept of earned value looks simple, its implementation in project management is not
easy because it must be supported by a management system that is able to provide complete data input in
calculating project performance. If the project performance is poor, the system will be able to track down
which parts are problematic which causes cost overruns and delays in project implementation. Management
commitment. In the application of the earned value concept, there must be a determination from the project
manager to utilize the earned value concept in the management system on the projects he handles.
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
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Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (8), Mei 2022
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Commitment must also exist in the company's main organization in supporting the decision to use the
earned value concept in project management (Jayady, Hidayat, et al., 2021).
METHOD
Data Collection Methods
The type of data used in this research is secondary data. According to (Sugiyono, 2018), secondary
data is research data obtained that is not directly related to providing data to data collectors. Secondary data
was obtained from the relevant agencies. The data needed in the control process are the type of project
activity, the start time of the activity, the duration of the activity, the volume of work, and the cost of each
activity. The data is obtained directly from the project site. After all the data has been obtained, the
processing is carried out using the Earned Value Method. Literature study is done by reading literature
related to this writing.
Data Analisys Method
In determining project performance by means of Earned Value, the information displayed is in the
form of indicators in quantitative form, which displays information on the progress of costs and the project
schedule. Because there are indications that the project will be late or early and the costs to be incurred are
more than or less than the budget, the progress of the project for the future needs to be forecasted in the
following way:
Estimated Cost for Remaining Work (Estimated to Completion).
ETC = (Budget – BCWP) / CPI
Estimated Cost of Project Completion (Estimated at Completion)
EAC = ACWP + ETC
Estimated Project Completion Date (Estimated Completion Date)
ECD = Remaining Time/SPI + Time Use
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
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Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (8), Mei 2022
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Earned Value Mehod Flowchart
The Flowchart of Earned Value Method is presented in Figure 4 below
Figure 4. Earn Value Flowchart
Source : (Araszkiewicz & Bochenek, 2019)
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
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Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (8), Mei 2022
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RESULT AND DISCUSSION
BCWS (Budgeted Cost For Work Schedule) / PV (Planned Value)
BCWS (Budgeted Cost for Work Schedule) is a budget that is allocated based on a work plan that
has been prepared against time. BCWS is calculated from the accumulation of the planned cost budget for
the work in a certain period. In the data processing table, BCWS is obtained by using the equation.
(Weekly Plan Weight/Overall Plan Weight) x Plan Budget
BCWS can be calculated by multiplying the cumulative percentage of the plan's progress each week
by the project value. The cumulative percentage of work plan progress is obtained from the S curve graph
in which there is a job description, the percentage of work weights and the percentage of plan progress.
Table 1. BCWS at week 135 to 142
Weeks
% Cumulative
BCWS
Progres Plan
Value
135
195,002,280,000.00
136
196,451,280,000.00
137
197,873,370,000.00
138
199,131,930,000.00
139
200,396,700,000.00
140
201,634,560,000.00
141
202,862,070,000.00
142
203,934,330,000.00
BCWP (Budgeted Cost For Work Performed) / EV (Earned Value)
BCWP (Budgeted Cost For Work Performed) is the value received from the completion of work over
a certain period of time. This BCWP is calculated based on the accumulation of completed work. BCWP is
calculated using the formula: (Weekly Implementation Weight/Overall Plan Weight) x Plan Budget.
BCWP can be calculated by multiplying the cumulative percentage of realization progress by the
total budget plan for a job (BAC). The cumulative percentage of realization progress is the cumulative
project achievement that has been achieved in one week. The cumulative percentage of realization progress
is obtained from the weekly progress report.
Table 2. BCWP at week 135 to 142
Weeks
% Cumulative
BCWP
Implementation Progress
Value
135
67.116
138,930,120,000.00
136
67.880
140,511,600,000.00
137
68.493
141,780,510,000.00
138
68.625
142,053,750,000.00
139
68.727
142,264,890,000.00
140
68.831
142,480,170,000.00
141
68.928
142,680,960,000.00
142
68.948
142,722,360,000.00
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
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Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (8), Mei 2022
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ACWP (Actual Cost For Work Performed) / AC (Actual Cost)
ACWP (Actual Cost For Work Performed) is the total actual cost of the work that has been carried
out. This cost is obtained from accounting or project financial data on the reporting date so, ACWP is the
actual amount of expenditure or funds used to carry out work at a certain time. ACWP calculation using
the formula:
Analysis Factor = (Weekly Implementation Weight/Overall Plan Weight) x Implementation Budget
Table 3. ACWP at week 135 to 142
Weeks
% Cumulative
ACWP
Implementation Progres
Value
135
67.116
158,205,661,834.00
136
67.880
160,006,560,660.53
137
68.493
161,451,522,677.10
138
68.625
161,762,672,736.14
139
68.727
162,003,106,872.66
140
68.831
162,248,255,404.02
141
68.928
162,476,903,553.46
142
68.948
162,524,047,501.80
Figure 5. S Curve at week 135 to 142
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
Indonesia
Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (8), Mei 2022
889
Figure 6. S Curve at week 1 to 146
CV (Cost Variance)
CV (Cost Variance) is the difference between the value obtained after completing work packages and
the actual costs incurred during project implementation. A negative number on the cost variance, which
indicates that costs are higher than the budget, is called cost overrun. Zero indicates work done according
to cost. While a positive number means the work is carried out at a cost less than the budget, which is
called a cost underrun. Equation used
Table 3. CV at week 135 to 142
Weeks
CV
135
-19,275,541,834.00
136
-19,494,960,660.53
137
-19,671,012,677.10
138
-19,708,922,736.14
139
-19,738,216,872.66
140
-19,768,085,404.02
141
-19,795,943,553.46
142
-19,801,687,501.80
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
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Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (8), Mei 2022
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SV (Schedule Variance)
Schedule Variance is used to calculate the deviation between BCWS and BCWP. A positive value
indicates that more project work packages have been implemented than planned. Conversely, a negative
value indicates poor work performance because fewer work packages have been carried out than the
planned schedule. Equation used:
Table 4. SV at week 135 to 142
Weeks
SV
135
-56,072,160,000.00
136
-55,939,680,000.00
137
-56,092,860,000.00
138
-57,078,180,000.00
139
-58,131,810,000.00
140
-59,154,390,000.00
141
-60,181,110,000.00
142
-61,211,970,000.00
CPI (Cost Performance Index)
The cost efficiency factor that has been spent can be shown by comparing the value of the work that
has been physically completed (BCWP) with the costs that have been spent in the same period (ACWP).
Table 5. CPI at week 135 to 142
Mingu
CPI
ke
135
0.88
136
0.88
137
0.88
138
0.88
139
0.88
140
0.88
141
0.88
142
0.88
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
Indonesia
Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (8), Mei 2022
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This CPI value shows the weight of the value obtained against the costs incurred. A CPI of more than
1 indicates good cost performance, because the costs incurred (ACWP) are smaller than the value obtained
(BCWP), in the sense that expenditures are smaller than the budget.
SPI (Schedule Performance Index)
Performance efficiency factor in completing the work can be shown by the comparison between the
value of the work that has been physically completed (BCWP) with the planned expenses incurred based
on the work plan (BCWS).
Table 6. SPI at week 135 to 142
Mingu
SPI
ke
135
0.71
136
0.72
137
0.72
138
0.71
139
0.71
140
0.71
141
0.70
142
0.70
This SPI value shows how much work can be completed against the planned work unit. An SPI value
of more than 1 indicates that the work performance is running faster than the planned target.
Forecasting Using Earned Value Methods
Estimates of the final cost to complete the project can be done using the indicators obtained at the
time of reporting to provide a final forecast of the project. This forecasting is useful in providing early
warning about things that will happen in the future, based on the assumption that the trends that exist and
are revealed at the time of reporting have not changed.
ETC (Estimate to Completion): estimated cost for remaining work, obtained by
ETC = (Budget – BCWP) /CPI
ETC = (207.000.000.000 – 142.722.360.000) / 0,88 = 73.195.694.190,20
EAC (Estimate at Completion) : Estimated total project cost, obtained by
EAC = 162.524.047.501,80 + 73.195.694.190,20 = 235.719.741.692
TE (Time Estimate) / Estimated Project Completion Schedule
TE = ATE + ((OD – (ATE x SPI)) / SPI)
TE = 146 + (( 142 – (146 x 0,7)) / 0,7)
TE = 202,86 weeks 203 weeks
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
Indonesia
Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (8), Mei 2022
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CONCLUSION
Based on the results of project data processing using the Earned Value method, the following conclusions
can be drawn:
1. The results of the CV (Cost Variance) calculation show a negative number, this means that the
cost to complete the project is greater than the plan / cost overrun.
2. The results of the SV (Schedule Variance) calculation show a negative number, this means that
the implementation is slower than planned.
3. The results of the calculation of the CPI (Cost Performance Index) of 0.88 < 1, indicating poor
performance in planning, in the sense that expenditure is greater than the budget.
4. The calculation result of SPI (Schedule Performance Index) is 0.7, indicating that the execution
of work is slower than the planned work schedule.
5. ETC (Estimate To Completion) value of Rp. 73.195.694.190.20, indicating the estimated cost to
complete the remaining work.
6. The EAC (Estimate At Completion) value is Rp. 235,719,741,692 represents the estimated total
cost of implementing the project to completion.
7. If this condition continues until the project is completed, then the estimated time and cost of
project completion is 203 weeks. The results show the project was 57 weeks late from the planned
146 weeks. This means that delays in the completion of the project will occur.
Project Delay Prediction With Earned Value Method: A Case on The Css-Apartment Project in Surabaya-
Indonesia
Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (8), Mei 2022
893
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