P-ISSN: 2808-5957
E-ISSN: 2808-6724
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1128
TURKEY-UAE BILATERAL RELATIONS: INTERDEPENDENCY IN
CAUSES OF CONFLICT RECONCILIATION
Shafira Ramadhanty¹, Muhamad Syauqillah
2
Kajian Timur Tengah dan Islam, Sekolah Kajian Stratejik dan Global, Universitas Indonesia¹,
2
Email: shafirara7@gmail.com, muhamadsyauqillah@ui.ac.id
ARTICLE INFO
ABSTRACT
Date received: 26 Mei 2022
Revision date: 16 June 2022
Date received: 25 June 2022
The study tries to analyze the dynamics of bilateral relations
between Turkey and the United Arab Emirates and how
interdependence leads to reconciliation between the two
countries. Although there had been tensions between Turkey
and the UAE due to differences in ideology and interests in the
region, trade relations between the two countries continued.
Qualitative methods are used and are based on the theory of
interdependence and the concept of reconciliation in analyzing
this phenomenon. The results showed that the
interdependence in bilateral relations led to the reconciliation
of conflicts that occurred between the two countries. Each
country is more focused on its economic priorities than on
highlighting. ConclusionBilateral relations between Turkey and
the UAE are based on the interdependence between the two
countries. It began with the highest official visit of Turkey and
the UAE on August 8, 1948 at the invitation of President Kenan
Evren. Turkey, as an adherent of an export-based economic
model, makes the UAE one of the important markets for
Turkey.
Keywords:
Interdependence; Bilateral
Relations; Turkey; UAE;
Reconciliation.
Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science © 2022 by International Journal Labs is licensed
under CC BY-SA 4.0
INTRODUCTION
Turkey and the United Arab Emirates had good bilateral relations in terms of
culture, military, and economy before the conflict arose. Turkey is one of the UAE's largest
trading partners. Turkey was one of the UAE's top 10 suppliers during 2004-2008. In an
effort to increase tourism ties, the UAE launched a new Etihad Airways flight to Istanbul
in 2009 and serves the city four times a week. Emirati businessmen are also investing in
Turkey in real estate as part of Turkey's privatization efforts. In 2010, the two sides
pledged to enhance commercial relations through joint projects and convene future
officials to determine possible areas of cooperation.
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The tension between Turkey and the UAE has substantially deteriorated since the
Arab Spring 2011. The Arab Spring is not only an opportunity for Turkey to replace the
old structures in the region, but also to expand its influence. Erdogan's government hopes
the new regional order will reshape the Arab world by inaugurating an era of Sunni rule
allied with Turkey in place of a secular monarchy. In that year Turkey also played a bigger
role on the world stage by building soft power in the Middle East and the “zero problem
with neighbors” doctrine to help Turkey generate geopolitical power. During the Arab
Spring, Turkey forged political relations with governments led by the Muslim Brotherhood
in Egypt and Ennahda in Tunisia. Erdogan has also taken a strong stance in supporting
regime change in Syria and supporting opposition groups in Syria's devastating war.
Meanwhile the UAE presents itself as a torchbearer of moderation against the
forces of “Turkish Islam”. This strategy aims to contain and confront Turkey which is
believed to be a threat in the region. Relations hit rock bottom when the Muslim
Brotherhood lost power in 2013. In recent years, public and media discourse in the UAE
has taken on an anti-Tuki hakish tone led by well-known and influential Emiratis.
The 2017 Gulf crisis, the war in Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean rivalry, and a
series of diplomatic spats have further strained relations. Although diplomatic relations
between Abu Dhabi and Ankara have not been completely cut off, Abu Dhabi has
withdrawn its ambassador from Ankara.
Reconciliation efforts were carried out in 2016 with dialogue to resolve problems
and enhance cooperation. Then Abu Dhabi announced that Ambassador Shaheen would
be the new Emirati ambassador to Ankara which has been vacant since 2013. Despite
allegations that Turkey funded the coup plot against the UAE, this dialogue process is still
ongoing. Ankara and Abu Dhabi state that they have similar regional interests and
policies.
However, given the reckless accusations by Ankara officials on Abu Dhabi, it can
be said that Ankara's interest in reconciliation is not very strong. Turkey also rejected
Abdullah bin Zayed's offer of financial investment in exchange for the extradition of
Muslim Brotherhood members and cooperation on other regional issues. Since then,
regional and bilateral crises, as well as media attacks, have made the Turkey-UAE rivalry
one of the most dangerous and contagious problems in the region.
Reconciliation between Turkey and the UAE was re-established in 2021. In his
meeting with Sheikh Tahnoun, Erdogan welcomed the UAE's offer of investment in
Turkey. Given the earlier rejection of a similar offer in 2016, it is possible that the UAE
expects some concessions and cooperation on regional issues in return.
According to Cinzia Bianco, a Gulf analyst, while Ankara may not change its
regional policies, it is the perception that the Turkish government is now much more open
to compromise. This is marked by Turkey's new approach to Egyptian television channels,
including those owned by the UAE's foe – the Muslim Brotherhood – to end some of their
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political programmings. Turkey and the UAE have also exchanged views on regional
issues and have agreed to disagree on several fronts, for example when Turkey expressed
its opposition to the UAE's move to normalize relations with the Syrian government.
This reconciliation also comes as Turkey experiences an escalating currency crisis
and undermines the government ahead of the 2023 presidential election. Erdoan's
popularity plummeted by 38% demanding an opinion poll be conducted in October 2021.
This is due to Erdogan's anti-interest rate views, the US dollar has The Turkish lira has
appreciated by almost 55% since early January. Inflation is also well above the official
20% figure.
Erdogan reportedly cited the possibility of a major Emirati investment as something
that would help him stabilize the economy. Turkish officials said the investment would be
a win-win for both sides, as the UAE is looking for new countries to invest in and Turkey
is a lucrative market.
Based on this explanation, the question arises: How are the dynamics of bilateral
relations between Turkey and the UAE? Then, how can interdependence lead to the
reconciliation of bilateral relations between Turkey and the UAE? The researcher will try
to reveal the dynamics of bilateral relations between Turkey and the UAE from a political
and economic perspective. Turkey and the UAE have ideological disagreements between
the two countries and inappropriate geopolitical projections. Both countries are also
pursuing expansionist foreign policies aimed at increasing their economic, political and
military presence in the region. Even so, there is economic and security interdependence
between the two countries which is currently a priority.
The concept of interdependence of each country is interesting to analyze and
monitor its development by academics and the media. Among them are Muhittin Ataman's
writings entitled A Conceptual Analysis of Turkey's Foreign Policy. This study discusses
the changes in Turkey's foreign policy since the end of the cold war. This change is
explained by the concepts of interdependence and diversification. Four main factors play
an important role in changing the orientation of Turkey's foreign policy: historical heritage
and cultural factors, geographical location, political preferences, and economic needs
(Sherwood, 2017).
In the second part of the study, there is an analysis of the four main factors of
interdependence and diversification in Turkish foreign policy. The results of this study
indicate that economic needs and political preferences enter into the process of
integration with the West. As a result of historical and cultural factors, it has pursued an
active policy toward the Muslim world. Likewise cooperation in many fields with regional
countries due to Turkey's historical heritage and geographical connections.
Article entitled Turkey-United Arab Emirates Relations written by (Mehmed, 2020)
discussing about the relationship between Turkey and the UAE has deteriorated due to
the perceived threat that differs from the Arab Spring process. However, in this process
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not only the regional/global balance of power but the country's structure and leadership
characteristics play an important role. The second part of the paper discusses the
perception of threats in foreign policy and the third part discusses the emergence of the
UAE as a country and its state structure briefly (Aykan, 1996).
The phenomenon discussed by the author in this study is the dynamics of bilateral
relations between Turkey and the UAE, then the author also discusses the
interdependence and economic cooperation of Turkey and the United Arab Emirates in
reconciliation efforts. The author will elaborate more deeply on the bilateral relationship
between Turkey and the UAE from before the Arab Spring until the cooperation in 2021.
Then the end of diplomatic and political tensions between the two countries also causes
political and economic improvements that must be carried out by both countries. The
main objective of this study is to find out the causes of the ending of tensions in bilateral
relations between Turkey and the UAE and the shifting factors causing the conflict
between Turkey and the UAE.
METHOD
This research is library research conducted by collecting and sharing information
from various sources related to this research (Mardalis, 2008). The research method used
by the author is a descriptive-analytical method which is a method of collecting data by
collecting data relevant to the discussion, then analyzing it. The data collection technique
used in this research is the documentation technique. Documentation technique is a
technique of collecting data from documents such as books, journals, newspapers, and
magazines, and research reports.
This research begins by collecting data related to the discussion, then reducing
data according to the research theme. The data that has been collected is then analyzed
by interdependence theory so that it can find out accurate and precise data.
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
Dynamics of Turkey-UAE Bilateral Relations Prior to the Arab Spring
Turkey had diplomatic relations with the UAE for a short time after its
establishment; Turkey opened embassies in 1979 and the UAE in 1983 (Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, TC). During this period, Turkey and the UAE took part in Western
alliances, although relations with the US had a fragile structure. After independence,
Sheikh Zayed prioritized Arab identity in politics and abroad and tried to prevent possible
invasions or attempts at influence by guaranteeing the support of other Arab states
(Almezaini, 2012). In this context, the Arab-Israeli issue has taken an important place in
the UAE's foreign policy. After the Arab-Israeli war, the UAE took part in the reduction of
oil production by Arab oil-exporting countries in 1973 and an oil embargo on several
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In this context, Turkey, which had improved its relations with Middle Eastern
countries and the Soviet bloc, became a member of the Organization of the Islamic
Conference (OIC) in 1976. Then, there was a change in Turkey's policy on the Arab-
Israeli issue during this period and criticized the situation. Palestinian refugees in the
1967 Arab-Israeli War. Turkey openly supported Arab states in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War,
and opened airspace for the Soviet Union to support Egypt and Syria. In return, the oil
embargo was not applied to Turkey (Hassan, 2008).
However, Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979 brought a new dimension to Turkey
and the UAE's relations with the US and their bilateral relations. Ayatollah Khomeini, who
took over as the “spiritual leader” of Iran after the revolution, invited Muslims to rise up
against the secular regime and establish a regime that adopts the true principles of Islam.
This situation is seen as a threat to Turkey and the UAE, and US protection is important.
In strengthening its position in the Middle East, the US began to resolve problems
among its allies in the region and strengthen ties. One area of application of the new US
strategy is Turkey, whose strategic importance has increased over time. The United
States leads Turkey to follow liberal economic policies through the IMF and the World
Bank. Thus, with the influence of these institutions, Turkey stopped the import
substitution development model on January 24, 1980 and decided to integrate the Turkish
market with the world market (Aras, 2004). In addition, the US, which does not want a
regime change in Turkey after Iran, supports the September 12 coup due to the
intensifying conflict between right-wing and left-wing groups in the country.
The UAE, on the other hand, established the Gulf Arab States Cooperation Council
(GCC) in 1982 along with other Arab states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and
Oman) against the general threat of Iran. These countries, which previously had
conflictual relations due to border issues, had to cooperate in facing the common threat
of Iran (Berger, 2014).
The development of Turkey and the UAE's foreign policy is also reflected in bilateral
relations. In general, the Gulf region is seen as an important market for Turkey which
has switched to an export-based economic model. For the UAE, cooperating with NATO
member Turkey is critical to the security of the Gulf region. The highest official visits of
Turkey and the UAE began in this period. Sheikh Zayed visited Turkey on August 8, 1984
at the invitation of then-President Kenan Evren. During the visit, security issues were high
on Sheikh Zayed's agenda, emphasizing that “Turkey is the driving force for the realization
of peace in the Middle East region.” During the negotiations in 1984, the Economic and
Technical Cooperation Agreement was signed. Under the agreement, a Joint Economic
Commission was formed between the two countries, and annual meetings began to be
held (Official Gazette, 1984). The main demands expressed by the UAE during this visit
were to develop military relations between the two countries and to utilize Turkey's
military capacity.
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From Turkey's perspective, it aims to attract capital to countries in the Gulf region
and to develop bilateral trade relations. One of the steps taken in this direction was the
establishment of a mixed economy commission to improve economic relations between
the two countries.
In 1985, Kenan Evren made a return visit to the UAE. During this visit, previously
discussed topics were discussed, and Turkish military authorities held talks on the
equipment requested by the UAE. During the visit, Kenan Evren was presented with the
"Unity" medal, which is the UAE's highest ranking.
Table 1. Turkey-UAE Foreign Trade Table (1980-1985)
Years
Exports
(USD)
Imports
(USD)
1980
2.384.331
67.099.228
1981
6.594.730
33.404
1982
21.241.866
422,4758
1983
20.819.148
6.655
1984
23.434.726
41.633
1985
119.470.506
4.433.240
Sumber: TUIK
Since the 2000s, Turkey-UAE relations have shown rapid economic development.
In addition, the UAE shows great interest in the products of the Turkish defense industry
and purchases some equipment for its army from Turkey.
Chart.1 Turkey-UAE trade volume
Sumber: TUIK
Economy forms an important dimension in Turkey's general policy towards the
Middle East. At the Economic Forum held in Jeddah in 2004, the then Prime Minister,
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said, “Politics in the world no longer directs the economy.
Economics drives politics. So, we need to develop this economic relationship even more.
Moreover, in the Middle East, we need to place the bonds between us in a very different
position. We need to find a serious high point in this relationship. If we get stuck on a
lower value, we can't fix it. But if we find that highest value and put the same denominator
above it, I believe; The Middle East region will soon make this expected leap forward''.
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In 2005, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement was signed between
Turkey, the GCC, and the Joint Committee to establish economic cooperation. Abu Dhabi
and Dubai investment funds, which have a value of around 1 Trillion USD, have also
increased their interest in Turkey. In this regard, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates
signed an agreement on Joint Promotion and Protection on 28 September 2005
(Indonesia, 2011).
So while the UAE's investment in Turkey was zero until 2005, it has increased
rapidly in the following years. In addition, the Turkey-UAE Business Council was
established and Turkey became one of the top ten countries in UAE exports and imports.
Turkey also attracts the attention of Gulf countries in the field of tourism, and more than
500,000 UAE citizens visited Turkey in the last ten years.
However, Turkey, which practices public diplomacy forging ties with non-
governmental elements, is not welcomed by the UAE. In this context, the organization of
the Muslim Brotherhood emerged as an important factor in the separation. Considering
the Brotherhood as a threat for the reasons mentioned above, the UAE opposes the
emergence of the organization as a legitimate political actor in other countries.
On the other hand, Turkey sees the Muslim Brotherhood as an important tool to
spread its influence in the Middle East, and the political participation of the organization
in Middle Eastern countries is supported. In this context, while Turkey supported the
ruling of the Brotherhood-based Hamas in Palestine in the 2006 parliamentary elections,
the UAE sided with the PLO in the Hamas-Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO)
conflict. After the strengthening of Hamas in Gaza, PLO representative Mohammed
Dahlan fled to the UAE (Özkızılcık, 2018). In fact, in the period when Turkey's relations
with Israel were strained after 2009, the UAE's move to normalize relations with Israel
along with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt was the first step of the two countries'
differences in regional policy. This emerging difference of interest became more visible
with the Arab Spring. In 2008, Joint Economic Commission the 7thSheikha Lubna Bint
Khalid Al Qasimi.
The Joint Commission meetings were held in an atmosphere of mutual
understanding and cooperation, reflecting the traditional close and brotherly relationship
between the two countries. During the negotiations, the parties expressed their
determination to further develop the bilateral economic and commercial relations
between the two countries. The results of the negotiations between the two countries
cover several fields, namely trade, trade centers, standards, customs, investment,
transportation, agriculture, energy, as well as cooperation in the fields of culture and
education.
In the trade sector, the two sides stressed the importance of further developing
commercial relations between the two countries within the framework of their
competitiveness and economic needs, and decided to make every effort to increase the
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volume of bilateral trade and diversify the composition of trade. Emphasizing the
importance of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for the liberalization of trade relations,
the parties decided to intensify efforts to conclude the FTA between Turkey and the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) during the third round.
Turkey, Dubai and Abu Dhabi in declaring their intention to establish a Turkish
Commercial Center, said they had asked the UAE to assist in determining the institution
with the establishment of the center. The Turkish side also said he informed the UAE side
in commercial considerations Turkey will visit the UAE in the second week of the
delegation from the DTM to discuss all issues related to March 2008 regarding the
establishment of the Center. The UAE expressed its satisfaction by saying the visit and
stated that it is ready to provide necessary assistance to Turkey.
In the investment field, the two countries stressed the importance of completing
the legal infrastructure to further develop relations between them in the investment field,
the parties decided to make efforts to complete the approval process of the "Mutual
Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement" as soon as possible.
The parties involved in the flow of foreign direct investment, joint ventures and
also portfolios to facilitate their investment, the UAE Turkish Investment Support and
Promotion Agency on investment development companies in the establishment of a
collaboration platform and the UAE in April 2008, said one of the officials of the relevant
agencies decided to hold a meeting.
In the field of transportation, the two countries emphasized the importance of
liberalizing relations in the field of land transportation for the further development of
bilateral trade, the Turkish side suggested starting negotiations on a bilateral agreement
on "International Transport of Passengers and Goods by Road", based on the draft text
submitted by the Turkish side. during the Joint Economic Commission (KEK) Meeting.
In the field of agriculture, the parties have decided to cooperate between the
Ministry of Agriculture and Affairs and the Ministry of Environment and Forestry of the
Turkish side, and the Ministry of Environment and Water of the UAE.
In the energy sector, both parties agreed to encourage their companies and
organizations to cooperate in the oil, gas and petrochemical sector on the following
issues: (1) The participation of Turkish companies in the Company's internationally
competitive oil, gas and petrochemical projects Abu Dhabi National Oil (ADNOC) and its
subsidiaries; (2) Procurement of high quality machinery and equipment for use in
research and development in oil and gas fields and petrochemical plants in the UAE; (3)
Encourage Turkish companies to develop the petrochemical sector in the UAE and
participate in export activities in this sector; (4) Encouraging Turkish companies to
develop business relations by establishing strategic partnerships in the trade of propane,
butane (LPG) and sulfur produced by ADNOC
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In cooperation in the fields of culture and education, the two countries agreed to
further develop cooperation in the field of cultural studies and the arts through the
exchange of experiences and expertise, as well as mutual visits in culture, arts,
publications, translation, and other arts fields. The parties also agreed to establish
cooperation in the field of education.
Dynamics of Turkey-UAE Bilateral Relations Post-Arab Spring
Differences in interests between Turkey and the UAE have led to significant
differences, especially in Egypt. After the "revolution" in Egypt in 2011, Mohammed Morsi,
who hails from the Muslim Brotherhood, was elected president. Turkey and Qatar
provided arms and financial support to the new government (Showkat et al., 2015). In
contrast, the UAE (and Saudi Arabia) opposed the revolution and implemented policies
aimed at weakening the Morsi government. However, both supported the military coup
that took place in July 2013 and provided financial assistance to the government of Abdul
fattah al-Sisi (Werr, 2013). Turkey also does not recognize the coup government and
accuses Sisi of carrying out the massacre. On the other hand, the UAE Foreign Minister
made a statement criticizing Erdogan's policies in Egypt.
The separation between Turkey and the UAE is also reflected in developments in
Libya. The split started with anti-regime demonstrations in Libya, Turkey took a stand in
favor of resuming talks with Gaddafi, while the air forces of the UAE and Qatar took part
in the NATO intervention. After Gaddafi's ouster, Turkey and Qatar supported groups
affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood (Tripoli Brigade led by Abdel Hakim Belhaj, Misrata
Mahjub Brigade), the National Transitional Council, and the General National Congress
established under the leadership of Fayez al-Sarraj.
However, Abu Dhabi later canceled the deal, citing financial priorities. Despite the
economic pretext, many observers interpreted the decision as a political message,
especially since it came directly after Abu Dhabi supported the 2013 military coup in Egypt
against the late Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's first democratically elected president.
Despite the tensions in the dynamics of relations between Turkey and the UAE,
trade relations between the two countries experienced an increase in the export and
import charts.
Grafik.2 Perdagangan Bilateral Turki-UEA 2008-2017
Sumber: Turkiye Ihracatcilar Meclisi
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Products in Turkey's bilateral trade with the UAE. The main products of Turkey's
exports to the UAE are gold and jewellery, petroleum and oil obtained from butymenous
minerals, helicopters, light aircraft, and woven carpets. Turkey's imports to the UAE
include gold, unprocessed aluminium, jewelery and accessories, ethylene polymers,
petroleum, and bituminous minerals. Turkey also exports potential agricultural and food
products to the UAE such as poultry, nuts, sweet biscuits and waffles, chocolate, oranges,
cheese, apples and vegetables.
In 2012, bilateral trade reached $11.8 billion. Abu Dhabi entered negotiations with
Ankara over some serious investments, leading to the signing of a $12 billion deal
involving lignite mining and power generation in the Afsin-Elbistan mega project.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, the volume of trade between
the two countries was around 500 million dollars in the early 2000s, this figure reached
the level of 15 billion dollars in 2017 despite crises from time to time. However, despite
a decrease in volume in the following years, an increase was seen again. Last year, the
difference in the export-import balance widened, but the total volume was recorded at
the level of 8 billion dollars.
The Changing Factors of Conflict
In his meeting with Sheikh Tahnoun, Erdogan welcomed the UAE's offer of
investment in Turkey. Given the previous rejection of a similar offer in 2016, it is possible
that Abu Dhabi expects some concessions and cooperation on regional issues in return.
If this is true, then Ankara may have accepted the deal it rejected in 2016.
The best way to assess the possibility of normalization is to assess how the factors
influencing the conflict have changed. In terms of ideology, Turkey's foreign policy
currently has a weaker Islamist contour than before. Several months ago, the Turkish
government asked the Muslim Brotherhood to dampen criticism of the Egyptian
government through Egyptian opposition television channels operating on its soil to
moderate criticism of the Egyptian government, as Ankara seeks to add to tensions in
relations with Cairo.
Moreover, Ankara has proven how it can act pragmatically in Syria over the past
few years. Thus, it can be concluded that the current ideological conflict between Turkey
and the UAE is not a major obstacle in the path of normalization. More importantly, the
Turkish and UAE leadership now have a better knowledge of the other side's capacities
and intentions after several years of intense competition. Emirati Ambassador Shaheen
became assistant foreign minister and then Minister of State after he was recalled from
Ankara. Turkish Ambassador Can Dizdar became Director General of the MENA region at
MFA Turkey.
Ankara and Abu Dhabi also have the opportunity to gauge each other's strengths.
In Libya in particular, the two countries were unable to score against each other, which
might prompt the parties to give more weight to diplomatic channels. The changing role
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of the United States was also a factor. The election of President Biden initially raised
expectations of increased US involvement in the region compared to the Trump era.
However, the withdrawal from Afghanistan lowered those expectations. Biden's
policies over the past year have shown that the United States will continue to withdraw
from the region, and therefore regional instability and a power vacuum remain. However,
perhaps the most important change is the decline in Turkey's power capacity due to
economic and other domestic policy issues.
The UAE made waves when it granted cover to the important Turkish mafia leader,
Sedat Peker, who has strong connections to Turkey's inner state, and has since made
scandalous revelations about Erdogan's party, the AKP. Meanwhile, after Erdoan met with
Sheikh Tahnoun, Erdoan expressed his enthusiasm for his zeal for a deal in a TV interview,
while the UAE side remained silent.
None of these factors warrant a change in relations, but higher-level diplomatic
contacts, particularly the meeting between Erdogan and Mohamed bin Zayed, are likely
to be useful for easing tensions and managing future conflicts that may arise. After all,
as both sides have said several times, Turkey and the UAE do not have deep-rooted
problems with each other. But much depends on Turkey's internal political circumstances;
if Turkey's economy recovers and Erdogan suppresses the growing wave of dissent
against his domestic policies, the geopolitical and ideological rivalry between Turkey and
the UAE could once again become more dominant.
The Importance of Reconciliation in Turkey and UAE Bilateral Relations
Efforts are continuing to address tensions between Turkey and the United Arab
Emirates (UAE), which have been experienced in recent months, but do not want to be
talked about much. Finally, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt avuşoğlu went to the UAE
and held high-level contacts in Abu Dhabi to end the dispute between the two countries,
meet on common ground and rebuild relations.
Meeting with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the influential name of the
UAE regime, who has a say in issues where disagreements between the two countries
arise, and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Chief
Armed Forces of the UAE, avuşoğlu said that “We mutually emphasize how important it
is for the stability and security of the region.” By using this expression, he shows that
Turkey has determined a new position regarding the UAE.
Following the visit, the UAE announced that it would send its ambassador, who
had not been appointed for nearly two years, to Ankara on May 7. At this point, it becomes
important to answer the question of what it means for Ankara to implement policies in
this direction.
Turkey is trying to maintain equal relations with the UAE government. In this
context, Ankara takes initiatives from time to time to prevent the crisis with the UAE, one
of its most important economic partners in the Middle East, from getting worse. Turkey's
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willingness to maintain existing economic ties with the UAE, despite having different
policies regarding Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood. The United Arab Emirates is the
second country to which Turkey exports the most in the Middle East, and the ninth
country in the world, with $4.6 billion in 2015.
Therefore, Ankara is aware that economic ties must be taken into account in its
political relations with the country. Ankara's push to keep current economic relations
abroad at the current level, especially as the environment of uncertainty created by the
elections in Turkey in 2015 began to affect the economy more deeply, has served as a
driving force in efforts to realign relations with the UAE.
In addition, despite being a relatively small country, the United Arab Emirates has
become an important actor in regional and international politics, especially through the
functioning of its economic power. Given its relations with countries such as Syria, Iran
and Russia, Turkey which has gone through a troubled process in its foreign policy in the
last period, does not want to risk its relationship with the UAE, which plays an active role
in regional politics and prefers to enter the normalization process. It can be said that
there is a similar attitude on the part of Abu Dhabi, although not with the same
motivation. In fact, although their differing policies on Egypt were seen as serious reasons
for splitting up, there is no denying that there are elements that could unite the UAE and
Turkey around the same denominator.
From Saudi Arabia's perspective, Ankara and Abu Dhabi's hostile policies towards
each other prevent these three countries from forming a stronger alliance in regional
policy. In this regard, it is very important that Turkey and the UAE change their attitude
towards each other in order to minimize differences and to create a common front in the
crisis in the region. It can be said that the UAE has realized the risks of following anti-
Turkish policies in its foreign policy in general. However, the UAE government, which is
increasingly aware of Turkey's growing power in the region, does not want to reduce the
points of conflict with Ankara and confronts Turkey directly. This is due to the fact that
some of the UAE's recent foreign policy measures have not yielded the desired results.
This suggests that the UAE has limited influence on its foreign policy.
Cooperation with a powerful country like Turkey in regional policy, staying close
to Ankara's position and acting together with this country will also have a positive impact
for the UAE in terms of foreign policy. In this context, it would be a more rational choice
for both countries as well as for the governments of Turkey and the UAE to develop a
common strategy by focusing on their priorities rather than highlighting their differences
in foreign policy.
Interdependensi dan Kerja Sama Ekonomi Turki-UEA
According to Mohammed Baharoon, Director General of the Dubai Center for Public
Policy Research, said that "UAE's expectation from Turkey is a partnership relationship
with a broad framework." He noted that economic issues would mark an important part
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of the bilateral visit agenda. Baharoon also said that economic cooperation would activate
cooperation on political and security issues.
According to Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, the most important issues in the hands
of the UAE are the economy and money. On the other hand, Dr. Yanarocak drew attention
to reasons such as the exchange rate crisis and deteriorating economic situation in Turkey
by saying, "Turkey is inevitably more willing than yesterday for the UAE to enter the
Turkish market."
Many companies from the UAE conduct research in the field of investment in
Turkey. It is uncertain how many UAE investors, particularly interested in sectors such as
health, energy, media, and defense industries, will invest in Turkey. On the other hand,
it is known that the UAE is trying to build a non-oil-based economy, and for this purpose,
advanced technologies including artificial intelligence, generating energy from sources
other than fossil fuels, tourism, and making the country a superpower. The trading center
made a great investment.
In this regard, economic cooperation with Turkey is expected to directly contribute
to the goal of opening the economy to outside the UAE as well as Turkey. Comments
made by Turkish-speaking experts and the Arab press, stated that the restoration of
Turkey-UAE relations will affect Turkey not only because of the economy but also because
of the new conditions in the region.
According to Muhammed Baharoon, stability is the most important thing for the
UAE, which wants to create economic and diplomatic channels from the region to the rest
of the world. This appears to complicate negotiations between Turkey and the UAE which
are at odds in areas such as Syria, Libya, and Egypt, the struggle for energy in the
Mediterranean, and support for the Muslim Brotherhood, which the UAE considers a
terrorist.
Dr.Yanarocak pointed out that the UAE can increase its political influence over
Turkey through economic investment. While the Turkish economy has faced significant
problems ranging from high inflation to unemployment, the government has faced
criticism and repeated calls for holding elections quickly. In addition to the above
economic developments, the recent depreciation of the Turkish Lira places the economy
as the most important issue on Turkey's agenda. One day before bin Zayed and Erdogan's
meeting, the lira was down about 15 percent vis--vis the USD and hit a historical record
13.50 TL to USD. Bin Zayed's public agenda for the visit includes negotiating investment
deals and economic cooperation, so the visit in Ankara appears to be a kind of life jacket
for the Turkish economy. Abu Dhabi recently announced that it is allocating $10 billion in
funds to areas that include energy, infrastructure and finance.
Although this step was taken at a time when Turkey was in dire need of foreign
investment, it was also a priority for the UAE. As a state-funded oil-rich emirate, Abu
Dhabi has long been an international investment player. Foreign investment for the UAE
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Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (9), Juni 2022
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is important for several reasons: The UAE has long aimed to diversify its oil-based
economy, meaning it is always seeking investment globally. Turkey has been on the Gulf
investment agenda since 2002, but the recent crisis between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and
the UAE has made Qatar a more significant player in the Turkish economy. Qatar has
been a significant investor in Turkey's banking and real estate sectors, stock market and
shopping malls. Therefore, one cannot ignore the UAE's regional calculations as it seeks
to undermine Qatar, which has been further strengthened by the recent reconciliation.
Saudi Arabia's desire to diversify its economy away from oil has also created an
atmosphere of competition with the UAE. Saudi Arabia is now seeking to become a
regional hub for international companies, which Dubai has long enjoyed. The
rapprochement of Saudi and Qatari relations also appears to be materializing faster than
the UAE and Qatar. As such, it seems that the UAE may feel left out, and is doing
everything it can to stay ahead.
According to Dr.Çınkara, the UAE will ask Turkey to follow constructive policies in
order to reach regional consensus. He expected negotiations with Egypt to continue,
negotiations with Syria to continue through the UAE, to support Gulf policy in Lebanon
and to intensify relations with Saudi Arabia. nkara also said, "And again, they probably
want the political formations or NGOs that are troubling these countries to show up less
in Turkey."
Visits between Turkish and UAE dignitaries since the summer of 2020. President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan first received the UAE National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoun
Bin Zayed Al Nahyan on August 18, and held a telephone conversation with Mohammed
bin Zayed al Nahyan on August 31. The meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Ankara in 2021
are considered the first step towards normalization. After the meeting, the UAE invested
$10 billion in Turkey and signed 10 important agreements signed between the two
countries, namely:
1. Agreement on the exchange of financial information in the context of preventing
money laundering and terrorism financing
2. Memorandum of understanding between the Abu Dhabi port company and the
Turkish Wealth Fund
3. Memorandum of Understanding between Abu Dhabi Development Holding (ADQ)
and Turkey Wealth Fund (TVF)
4. Memorandum of Understanding between Abu Dhabi Development Holding and the
Presidential Investment Office
5. Memorandum of Understanding between the Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange and the
Istanbul Stock Exchange
6. Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation between the Central Bank of the
Republic of Turkey and the Central Bank of the UAE.
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7. Administrative cooperation agreement and partnership in the customs branch
8. Memorandum of understanding for cooperation in the energy sector
9. Memorandum of cooperation in the environmental field
Prof. dr. Kireçci said, “Turkey is a country that looks after its allies. He
demonstrated this in Karabakh and Qatar. If there is trade, good relations, all parties win.
Therefore, Turkey and the UAE have a lot to do in Africa and the Middle East. This visit
can be considered as a first step towards that, the investment agreement is not only
profit. Let's think that this is just the beginning of the work. Also, Turkey's economy is
huge. There are big projects in Turkey, there are projects waiting to be realized."
During one of the cooperation meetings between Turkey and the UAE, Minister of
Commerce Mehmet Muş announced that a Memorandum of Understanding of the Joint
Economic Commission (SEZ) has been signed between Turkey and the United Arab
Emirates (UAE). Muş attended the Turkey-UAE Business Forum organized by the Council
on Foreign Economic Relations (DEIK) in Dubai.
Minister Muş explained various projections of cooperation between Turkey and the
UAE to deepen their commercial and economic relations, one of which Turkish companies
can contribute to the aesthetic architecture of the UAE and major housing projects listed
in the Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030.
Turkey has also made great progress. in every field in the last 20 years because it
has become the second highest growth country among the G20 countries in 2020. Turkey
also has a qualified workforce, strategic geographical location, and integration with major
countries.
Muş mentioned that the development of cooperation between Turkey and the UAE
can be an example for other countries in the region and can also promote regional
stability. Despite the pandemic conditions, the trade volume between Turkey and the UAE
increased and reached 8.4 billion dollars in 2020. The 10-month 2021 data shows that
the positive direction in the Turkey-UAE bilateral trade continues.
The total amount of UAE investment into Turkey since 2002 reached $4.8 billion
at the end of 2020. It is noted that while almost 550 companies with UAE capital are
operating in Turkey today, and want to increase these figures to much higher levels in
the future. There are also 141 projects worth $12.6 billion carried out by Turkish
contracting companies in the UAE to date. Apart from overseas trade, Turkey also
provides investor-friendly policies and a safe working environment.
Turkey has become a favorite investment base for many companies on a global
scale as Turkey gains and strengthens its position as a strong supplier in today's world
trade. Advanced industry and infrastructure as well as experience and qualified human
resources make Turkey a global export production base. Turkey's export target by the
end of 2021 is 220 billion dollars with the efforts and determination of business people.
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Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science, Vol 1 (9), Juni 2022
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After the business forum, Minister Mu attended the Joint Economic Commission
(KEK) meeting with Thani Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade.
Muş said, "At this meeting, issues of cooperation in the fields of industry, energy,
transportation, health, civil aviation, SMEs, science and technology, agriculture and
tourism were also discussed".
CONCLUSION
Bilateral relations between Turkey and the UAE are based on the interdependence
between the two countries. It began with the highest official visit of Turkey and the UAE
on August 8, 1948 at the invitation of President Kenan Evren. Turkey, as an adherent of
an export-based economic model, makes the UAE one of the important markets for
Turkey. Meanwhile for the UAE, cooperation with NATO member Turkey is important for
the security of the Gulf region. So that during the visit, security issues became the main
agenda. Then, Turkey and UAE relations are getting closer with various forms of economic
cooperation in the Joint Economic Commission.
However, Turkey and the UAE have different ideological and interests in the
Region. In this context, the Muslim Brotherhood emerged as an important factor in the
separation and exploded during the Arab Spring process. Not only in Egypt, the separation
between Turkey and the UAE was also reflected in developments in Libya. both countries
experienced an increase in the graph of exports and imports.
In 2021, tensions between Turkey and the UAE began to ease with Sheikh
Tahnoun's visit to Ankara and was welcomed by President Erdogan. The UAE invested
$10 billion expecting some concessions and cooperation on regional issues in return.
The factors influencing the conflict have also changed ideologically and interests
in the Region. None of these factors warrant a change in relations, but higher-level
diplomatic contacts, particularly the meeting between Erdogan and Mohamed bin Zayed,
are likely to be useful for easing tensions and managing future conflicts that may arise.
It would be a rational choice for both countries as well as for the governments of
Turkey and the UAE to develop a common strategy and focus on priorities rather than
highlighting differences in their ideologies and interests in the Region. Therefore,
normalization steps have been taken by the two countries with an investment provided
by the UAE of $10 billion and the signing of 10 important agreements between the two
countries.
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